A unraveling alliance: Support wanes for Biden among Black, Hispanic, and young voters at the outset of the election year.

 President Joe Biden faces concerning vulnerabilities among his traditional Democratic supporters as the election year commences, with Donald Trump gaining an edge among Hispanic voters and the youth demographic. A noteworthy development is that one in five Black voters now expresses an inclination to support a third-party candidate come November.

The recent USA TODAY/Suffolk University Poll reveals that Biden's struggle to solidify backing within crucial segments of the coalition that propelled him to victory in 2020 has resulted in a narrow trail behind Trump, the presumed Republican nominee, with a margin of 39% to 37%. Additionally, 17% of respondents express support for an unspecified third-party candidate.

When the poll specifies seven candidates by name, Trump's lead expands slightly to 3 percentage points, standing at 37% to 34%, with independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. emerging as the leading third-party contender with 10% support.

The results emphasize the considerable political challenge ahead for the president as he seeks re-election this year.




"I believe he has performed adequately, but it hasn't been an administration that elicits a 'wow' factor," remarked Michelle Derr, a 55-year-old Democrat and small-business owner in Alexandria, Virginia, a suburb near Washington, D.C., who participated in the survey. "It's disheartening to see two elderly white gentlemen in the race again. I want to be hopeful about the future."

Biden's current backing among Black voters has dwindled significantly to 63%, marking a sharp drop from the robust 87% support he secured in 2020, as reported by the Roper Center. Additionally, he lags behind among Hispanic voters by a margin of 5 percentage points, trailing at 34% against 39%. This is a notable shift from the 2020 election, where he dominated Trump within the Hispanic demographic with a 2-to-1 ratio, securing 65% compared to Trump's 32%.

The poll, encompassing 1,000 likely voters and conducted via landline and cellphone from Tuesday through Friday, carries a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

There is potentially encouraging news for Biden as well: sentiments regarding the economy are improving. Currently, 29% of respondents believe the economy is in recovery, reflecting an 8-percentage-point increase since the late October survey. This uptick, following positive indicators on employment, inflation, and the stock market, marks the highest level since August 2021.

Nevertheless, despite the more optimistic economic outlook, the White House finds itself frustrated, as this positive perception has not yet translated into increased support for the president—at least not at this juncture.


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